EcoTwin Research on Oil Spill Forecasting and Ecosystem Resilience Presented at EGU 2026

Tuesday, May 12th, 2026

Prof. Georgios Sylaios and his team represented the EcoTwin project at the European Geosciences Union (EGU) General Assembly 2026 in Vienna, presenting new research that brings advanced marine forecasting and environmental risk modelling to one of the world's leading scientific forums.

The EGU General Assembly is held annually in Vienna and gathers thousands of scientists, policy experts, technology developers, and environmental stakeholders to discuss the latest advances in climate science, marine sustainability, Earth observation, and digital twin technologies.

Within this setting, Prof. Sylaios presented research on oil spill forecasting in the Kerch Strait, combining satellite observations with three advanced modelling systems: MEDSLIK, MEDSLIK-II, and OpenDrift.

The Volgoneft 212 incident

The study focused on the major Volgoneft 212 oil spill incident of December 2024, when the tanker's hull fractured at the southern entrance of the Kerch Strait, releasing approximately 4,000 tonnes of mazut fuel into the marine environment. Within days, pollution affected around 60 km of the northeastern Black Sea coastline, including heavily visited coastal and tourist areas.

The incident underlined the growing environmental risks posed by increasing maritime traffic, offshore activities, and extreme weather across European seas.

One of the key operational challenges during the event was the difficulty of monitoring the oil slick using satellite imagery alone. Severe weather, including strong winds and high waves, limited the availability of usable radar images. To overcome these limitations, the research combined satellite observations with advanced numerical forecasting systems capable of predicting how the oil slick would evolve, spread, and impact coastal areas.

Three complementary forecasting systems

The three systems used in the study each provided complementary capabilities:

  • MEDSLIK, one of the pioneering three-dimensional oil spill forecasting models
  • MEDSLIK-II, the open-source evolution of the MEDSLIK framework
  • OpenDrift, a Python-based open-source trajectory modelling system validated across several European seas

By combining environmental data such as winds, waves, and ocean currents with the physical behaviour of spilled oil, the models simulated:

  • Oil transport and dispersion
  • Shoreline and beach impacts
  • Surface and subsurface spreading
  • Oil weathering and transformation processes

The simulations showed strong agreement with satellite imagery and field observations, successfully reproducing the main coastal impact patterns of the spill near Anapa, Utrish, and Cape Takil.

Why this work matters for EcoTwin

The results demonstrate the growing operational value of advanced marine forecasting systems for supporting rapid environmental response during marine pollution emergencies.

They also reflect the broader direction of the EcoTwin project: showing how satellite observations, ocean forecasting, hydrodynamic modelling, and oil spill simulations can be integrated into digital twin approaches for marine environmental management.

The reliance on interoperable, open-source systems such as MEDSLIK-II and OpenDrift is significant. It points to the importance of transparent, reproducible, and operational forecasting tools that can support emergency response, coastal protection, environmental monitoring, and climate adaptation planning, rather than locking critical capabilities behind closed software.

Presenting these results at EGU 2026 strengthened EcoTwin's visibility within the international scientific community working on oceanography, climate science, Earth observation, artificial intelligence, and digital twin ocean technologies.

More broadly, the work illustrates how marine environmental resilience will increasingly depend on integrating real-time observations, satellite technologies, ecosystem modelling, and numerical forecasting into operational digital systems that support rapid, evidence-based decision-making. The EGU 2026 presentation was both an important scientific contribution and a clear demonstration of how EcoTwin is helping to build the next generation of digital twin ocean capabilities for Europe.

Authors

Georgios Sylaios, George Zodiatis, Panagiota Keramea, Hari Radhakrishnan, Svitlana Liubartseva, Igor Ruiz Atake, Andreas Nicolaidis, Dmitry Soloviev, Kyriakos Prokopi, Nikolaos Kokkos, Stamatis Petalas, Constantinos Hadjistassou, and Nikolaos Kampanis.