Wednesday, December 3rd, 2025
Across the world’s coastlines, resilience is becoming one of the most important ideas in marine science and policy. It describes the ability of a socio ecological system to withstand disturbances and absorb shocks without losing its essential identity or function. In the context of marine environments, where human activity, climate change and ecological processes are tightly interwoven, resilience is no longer a vague aspiration. It is a measurable property, and increasingly, one that can be analysed using causal reasoning.
The EcoTwin project is investigating resilience as the ability of marine socio ecological systems to recover from disturbances while retaining their core structure and function. The examples being explored are intuitive. Coral reefs that can reorganise after bleaching events, fish populations that rebound after overharvesting, and coastal communities that adapt their practices after major storms all demonstrate resilience in action. This resilience, however, is matched by a related concept. Vulnerability.
The research considers vulnerability as the susceptibility of marine socio ecological systems to external shocks. Vulnerability is shaped by exposure to hazards, sensitivity to disturbance and the system’s capacity to adapt. A small-scale fishing community that relies heavily on a single species is inherently more vulnerable than one with diversified livelihoods. This is not only a social issue. Ecological components can also be vulnerable. Species that occupy narrow ecological niches or are slow to recover after disturbances carry heightened risk.
Between resilience and vulnerability sits a third concept being researched… adaptive capacity. This is the ability of marine socio ecological systems to adjust, reorganise or innovate in response to changing conditions. For example, coastal governance structures that enable collective decision making and learning are considered to have high adaptive capacity. This capacity influences both resilience and vulnerability. A community or ecosystem with strong adaptive capacity is more likely to reduce vulnerability over time and maintain or strengthen resilience.
The fourth foundational component is governance. Governance is a set of rules, institutions and norms that mediate human environment interactions. Effective governance helps shape socio ecological outcomes. It determines whether ecosystems are overexploited or sustainably managed, whether local communities feel empowered or marginalised, and whether long-term ecological resilience is prioritised or sacrificed for short-term gains.
The relationships between vulnerability, adaptive capacity and governance is complex. This complexity is one of the reasons why socio ecological modelling has become such an important tool in marine science. The EcoTwin project also looks at the historical overview of the field, noting that systems ecology and resilience theory began to take shape in the mid twentieth century with influential contributions such as C. S. Holling’s work on ecological resilience. These early ideas evolved into what is now known as socio ecological systems modelling, which aims to capture the dynamic interactions between human and ecological components.
There are several methodological advances in the approach. These include loop analysis, socio ecological networks and participatory modelling. Loop analysis allows researchers to map out qualitative relationships between variables when quantitative data are scarce. Socio ecological networks offer powerful ways of analysing interdependencies and systemic vulnerability. Participatory modelling brings stakeholders into the modelling process, ensuring that models reflect local knowledge and practical realities.
These advances have expanded the scope of socio ecological modelling. However, the EcoTwin project’s research makes a compelling argument that a key limitation remains. Many socio ecological models capture associations and feedback but struggle to identify causal mechanisms. This distinction is important. Correlations can show that two variables move together, but only causal analysis can reveal whether one variable can influence or change another. Identifying causal mechanisms is essential for rigorous policy evaluation and scenario assessment.
The project continues to advocate for the integration of causal inference into socio ecological models. Causal inference techniques, such as structural equation modelling, allow researchers to distinguish genuine cause-effect relationships from spurious correlations. Belief propagation methods applied to graphical models can help propagate evidence and track how changes spread through complex networks, supporting the identification of plausible causal pathways. This matters because marine policy often involves interventions. Examples include establishing protected areas, reducing fishing quotas or introducing pollution controls. Causal models enable researchers to estimate the effects of these interventions, both directly and indirectly, across social and ecological dimensions.
Causal inference also enhances predictive capacity. By incorporating explicit causal structures, models become better at anticipating regime shifts, threshold effects and non-linear responses. This is crucial in marine environments, where small changes can have outsized consequences. Causal models improve the credibility of socio ecological assessments and support more effective governance and adaptive management.
Resilience, vulnerability, adaptive capacity and governance are foundational concepts for understanding marine socio ecological systems. The EcoTwin project argues that integrating causal inference with socio ecological modelling strengthens our ability to analyse these complex dynamics. It allows researchers and policy makers to move from describing patterns to understanding mechanisms and predicting the effects of interventions.