Use Case Scenarios

Objective: Assess the interplay between ecosystem services, spatial closures, and geopolitical dynamics in the Belgian Part of the North Sea, focusing on local resource management and marine health. Analyse the impact of spatial closures, such as due to offshore windfarms and Marine Protected Areas (MPAs),

Location: Belgian Part of the North Sea (ICES IVc), a region important for its ecosystem dynamics & fisheries.

Stakeholders (legal status, economic power, marine use strategies:

• Fisheries: Redercentrale, Vlaamse Visveiling N.V., Individual fishers.
• Policymakers: Province of West-Flanders, Department of Agriculture and Fishery, Flemish Government, Strategic Advisory Council for Agriculture and Fisheries.
• Research: Flanders Research Institute for Agriculture, Fisheries and Food.
• Environmental: WWF Belgium.

Analysis Framework: Class I, II & IV socio-ecological models will be used. The marine ecosystem will be modelled using Ecopath with Ecosim, which considers species interactions and fishing impacts. Relationships among various stakeholders will be established through social network modelling, incorporating both weighted (causal analysis) and unweighted (sustainability assessment) edges.

Data Inputs:

• Species and functional group biomass, production, and species interactions data (sources include ICES, FishBase, SeaLifeBase, literature, existing Ecopath model of the Southern North Sea).
• Fishing fleet details and spatio-temporal catch data (eLogbook, VMS, fisheries observer data, ICES).
• Socio-economic data covering vessel costs, revenue, profit, and value.

Note: Restricted access data includes non-aggregated socio-economic metrics of the Belgian fishery, eLogbook data, and VMS. Permission is required for project use.

Models: Ecopath (1991 snapshot), ongoing Ecosim calibration, and Class I, II, IV models.

Analysis Output:

• Identify causal links among functional groups, species, fishing methods, stakeholders.
• Gauge the impacts of spatial closures amid environmental changes (e.g., seawater temperature fluctuations).
• Investigate the nexus of ecosystem service utilisation and socio-economic connection.
• Identify sustainable Marine Protected Area(s).

Policy Impact: Using the socio-ecological models the decision support tools will enable scenario assessments for potential offshore wind farm or MPA placements. It will provide guidance to policymakers towards sustainable ocean resource management decisions in relation to spatial closures.

Objective: Assess the marine ecosystem's net benefit from offshore renewables in South Cork, and Germany focusing on the economic ramifications for local, regional, and national levels. Examine impacts of spatial closures like offshore wind farms and MPAs on the marine ecosystem and fisheries.

Location: South Cork (Celtic Sea) and Germany (North Sea).

Stakeholders:

• Offshore Wind: Developers, Supply chain.
• Fisheries: Fishers, Vessel owners organisation (IFPO), Bord Iascaigh Mhara.
• Policymakers: Port manager (Cork), Department of Marine and Communication (Ireland), EPA, SEAI, German authorities (BSH; Thünen Institute for Sea Fisheries).
• Research: Environmental Humanities Research Institute, TCD.
• Environment: Coastwatch; NABU.

Analysis Framework: Using Class I & II socio-ecological models, the marine ecosystem is represented by species/functional group nodes. Social Network Analysis will illuminate the SES agent dynamics.

Data Inputs:

• Species, fishing fleet, fishing types (inshore vs. offshore), gear types, trawler types.
• Historical (70 years) North Sea fishing data from Global Fishing Watch and ICES.
• Catch data for various species.
• Demographic details including income and gender, plus interview data from German fisheries.
• Wind farm scenarios from sustainMare.

Models: ECOSMO, Class I-IV.

Analysis Output:

• Pinpointing group causal connections (like functional groups, fishing types, gears, stakeholders).
• Gauging environmental changes (e.g., seawater temperature rise) on ecosystems and human activities.
• Interplay between ecosystem service use and societal connections.
• Formulating strategies that offset external pressures on fisheries by fostering job opportunities within port facilities that support marine renewables' operation and maintenance (O&M).
• Identifying sustainable MPAs.

Policy Impact: Leverage socio-ecological models to create decision-support tools, exploring "what-if" scenarios like new offshore windfarm placements. This highlights the impact of developing ports and facilities on environmental resources against fisheries job losses, supporting the Marine Spatial Planning Directive. 

Objective: To assess the potential of tourism and marine renewable initiatives in bolstering the economic prospects of coastal communities, while compensating for the diminished fishing activities in the ecologically sensitive areas of the Thracian Sea. Explore spatial closures' impact, such as offshore windfarms and LNG terminals (including their temporal aspects), on pelagic and benthic ecosystems, and the fisheries sector.

Location: North Aegean Sea (within the Aegean-Levantine ICES Ecoregion). This region has important interplay between pelagic and benthic ecosystems, and the fisheries.

Stakeholder Groups:

• Fisheries Sector: Association of North Aegean Sea Trawlers, Association of Thrace, Local Municipalities.
• Research Institutes: Fisheries Research Institute (Greek Agriculture Organisation “Demeter”), North Aegean Sea purse seiners, Panhellenic Association of Coastal Fishers.
• Policy: Ministry of Agriculture and Fisheries, Department of Fisheries (Region of East Macedonia)

Analysis Framework: Applying Class I, II, and IV socio-ecological models that intertwine marine ecology with socio-economic considerations, providing a comprehensive understanding of how policy decisions ripple through both nature and communities.

Data Input:

• Species and functional groups insights integrated with trophic web simulations (via Ecopath with Ecosim) for the Thracian Sea.
• Distribution of fishing fleet derived from VMS/AIS data.
• Various fishing gears data.
• Annual catch data across species, rooted in HELSTAT and DCF databases.
• Socio-economic metrics for fisheries such as mean gross/net income, catch per unit effort, distance from port to fishing grounds, diesel consumption rates, and species-specific fish prices.

Analysis Output:

• Identifying causal interplays among functional groups, species, fishing types/gears, and all involved stakeholders.
• Assessing the dual ecological and economic consequences of spatial closures geared toward marine renewables.
• Gauging the environmental and economic ramifications of evolving port facilities.
• Scrutinising the dual environmental and economic impacts of climate change, spotlighting aspects like seawater temperature escalation and alien fish species invasions.
• Exploring the dynamic between environmental conservation and socio-economic frameworks.
• Formulating strategies that offset external pressures on fisheries, especially focusing on traditional coastal fishing, by fostering job opportunities.

Policy Impact: The socio-ecological models stand as pillars for devising supportive policy instruments. They allow for simulated what-if evaluations, such as potential impacts from offshore wind farm establishments on vital marine zones (e.g., reproduction sites, nurseries, and prime fishing grounds). Moreover, these models underline the balance between environmental conservation and socio-economic upliftment in the fisheries sector. 

Objective: Develop scenarios to restore and manage the Barrow-Nore-Suir Estuary, emphasising selected fisheries and tourism integration, with a focus on selected habitats and key fish species: sprat, salmon, twaite shad, and sea bass.

Location: Waterford Harbour, SE Ireland, where the Barrow, Nore, and Suir rivers meet the Celtic Sea. The area boasts five Natura 2000 sites, a rich cultural history, and a biodiverse ecosystem. Despite its value, declining water quality, reduced ecosystem health, and absent integrated management plans pose challenges. 

Stakeholder Groups:

• Fisheries and Tourism Sector: Includes fishers, aquaculture operators, ISEFPO, angling bodies, restaurants, museums, and harbour boards.
• Policymakers/Regulators: Covers regional county councils, national departments (e.g., Department of Tourism, Culture, Arts, Gaeltacht, Sport and Media), and advisory bodies (e.g., NPWS, SFPA, IFI).
• Environmental Advocacy: Coastwatch and IWT.
• Research Institutions: SETO, TCD, Marine Institute.

Analysis Framework: Emphasise legal obligations for water quality and marine conservation, integrating fisher knowledge, local authorities, and communities for sustainable estuary use amidst climate change challenges.

Data Inputs:

• Info on estuary users, jobs, cultural and environmental assets.
• EU law compliance, water quality, and ecosystem health.
• Details on key fish species, fishing traditions, fleet details, and catch specifics.
• Tourism activities, public services, and quality of life metrics.

Models Used: ECOSMO, Class I-IV.

Analysis Output:

• Restoration and management scenarios for Waterford Harbour, focusing on selected fish species and local community involvement.
• Sustainable fisheries and tourism models aligned with Natura site objectives.
• Adaptation plans for ports and industries regarding climate change.

Policy Impact: The models will guide policymakers and authorities on EU law compliance, providing the community with tools to understand estuarine management's socio-economic and environmental implications.